Polling

Silver, a former professional poker player, was in the business of measuring probabilities. Many readers mistook him for an oracle.

The Times’ polling guru digs into what we know so far about which issues motivated voters, and what he hopes to learn in the coming months.

The predictors got the midterms mostly right. Was it a fluke?

The Times domestic correspondent reflects on the stakes of 2020’s historic polling error, how the pandemic affected the data, and the paper’s contentious “election needle.”

Dave Wasserman discusses what conclusions can be reached from early-voting data and why Pennsylvania is the Midwestern state that Democrats should worry about.

Polls show Joe Biden maintaining a strong lead as the campaign for the White House enters the homestretch, but many Democrats remain wary that the debacle of 2016 could be repeated.

Recent polls suggest that President Trump is facing the same basic challenge that confronted the Republican Party in the 2018 midterms: a majority of voters don’t like him or approve of the job he is doing.

If a pandemic that has killed nearly two hundred thousand Americans can’t significantly hurt Trump’s support, can anything?

Polls measure something, but it’s often the wrong thing (fame, money). They’re like S.A.T. scores.

The political scientist Rachel Bitecofer joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss the best way for Democrats to win the Presidency, and Congress, in 2020.

With this interactive, change voters’ political loyalties to build a winning coalition.

What the turn from polls to data science means for democracy.