Statistics
Our Columnists
What Was Nate Silver’s Data Revolution?
Silver, a former professional poker player, was in the business of measuring probabilities. Many readers mistook him for an oracle.
American Chronicles
The Data Delusion
We’ve uploaded everything anyone has ever known onto a worldwide network of machines. What if it doesn’t have all the answers?
The Sporting Scene
A Gambling Sharp Breaks Into the N.F.L.
Warren Sharp says he’s the only analyst “in the betting space” who works with N.F.L. teams. Do those dual roles constitute a conflict of interest?
Q. & A.
India’s Uncounted COVID-19 Deaths
Rukmini S, a data journalist in Chennai, speaks about the coronavirus cases and death toll in India, and why unofficial statistics suggest that the true numbers are likely far greater than reported.
Elements
The Awful Uncertainty of the Coronavirus Death Toll
The new number—half a million Americans dead—is only an approximation of the pandemic’s real effects.
Daily Shouts
Statistics I’ve Trusted Forever Without Verifying
“Only three per cent of the Earth’s water is drinkable.” What per cent of the Earth’s Diet Coke is drinkable, though?
Daily Shouts
When Fifty Per Cent Is O.K., but Ninety to Ninety-Five Per Cent Is Extraordinary
Pizza remaining in the pizza box, voter turnout in the Georgia runoffs, and more.
Annals of Inquiry
The Trouble with Crime Statistics
It’s surprisingly hard to say what makes crime go up or down.
News Desk
Why Doesn’t the U.S. Have an Accurate Count of Child-Abuse Deaths?
Standards for accounting for such deaths vary wildly from state to state, and chances that a uniform definition of maltreatment death will materialize are slim.
Books
What Statistics Can and Can’t Tell Us About Ourselves
In the era of Big Data, we’ve come to believe that, with enough information, human behavior is predictable. But number crunching can lead us perilously wrong.
Books
What Baseball Teaches Us About Measuring Talent
The clash between data and intuition opens onto a larger debate.
Replay
Andrew Benintendi’s Beautiful, Unexceptional World Series Catch
What the catch lacked in difficulty it made up for in style, invoking the things that all ballplayers dream about and occasionally experience: the sound of the ball in the leather, the feeling of the satisfying thud.
The Financial Page
Trump’s Abuse of Government Data
The President seems to declare employment numbers “very real” or fake news based solely on how they reflect on him.
Annals of Technology
The Shakespeare Algorithm
The Sporting Scene
England’s European Soccer Woes
The Sporting Scene